Who we are
Tao Hong received his B.Eng. in Automation from Tsinghua University, Beijing, and an M.S. in Electrical Engineering, an M.S. in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, and a Ph.D. in Operations Research and Electrical Engineering from North Carolina State University. He is the Head of Energy Forecasting at SAS Institute Inc., Chair of IEEE Working Group on Energy Forecasting, General Chair of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition, and Guest Editor-in-Chief of the IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid’s Special Issue on Analytics for Energy Forecasting with Applications to Smart Grid. His research interests are in analytics and utility applications. Shu Fan received his B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees in the Department of Electrical Engineering from China’s Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST), Wuhan, China, in 1995, 2000, and 2004, respectively. He conducted postdoctoral research sponsored by the Japanese Government in Osaka Sangyo University from 2004 to 2006, and was a Visiting Assistant Professor at the Energy Systems Research Center at the University of Texas at Arlington from 2006 to 2007. At present, he is a Senior Research Fellow at Monash University, Clayton, Australia. His research interests include energy system forecasting, power system control, and high-power power electronics. Pierre Pinson holds a M.Sc. in Applied Mathematics, as well as a Ph.D. in Energy from Ecole des Mines de Paris, France. He is the Associate Professor in Stochastic Energy Systems at the Technical University of Denmark, with particular interests in probabilistic forecasting for energy and electricity markets. He is involved as principal scientist and workpackage leader in a number of Danish and European projects related to these topics. He acts as editor for the journals Wind Energy and IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.
 dddd Dr Alberto Troccoli is the head of the Weather and Energy Research Unit at Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO, Australia). He has more than 15 years of experience in several aspects of meteorology and climate and their application to the energy sector. He has held research positions at NASA, ECMWF and the University of Reading (UK). Alberto is the chief editor and an author of three books: ‘Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk’ (Springer, 2008), ‘Management of Weather and Climate Risk in the Energy Industry’ (Springer, 2010), ‘Weather Matters for Energy’ (Springer, due out in 2013). He is the convener of the International Conference Energy & Meteorology (ICEM, Australia 2011) and ICEM-2 (France 2013). Alberto holds a PhD in physical oceanography from the University of Edinburgh (UK). Additional info can be found at: http://www.albertotroccoli.org Rob J Hyndman is Professor of Statistics in the Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics at Monash University and Director of the Monash University Business & Economic Forecasting Unit. He is also Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Forecasting and a Director of the International Institute of Forecasters. Rob is the author of over 100 research papers in statistical science. In 2007, he received the Moran medal from the Australian Academy of Science for his contributions to statistical research, especially in the area of statistical forecasting. For 25 years, Rob has maintained an active consulting practice, assisting hundreds of companies and organizations. His recent consulting work has involved forecasting electricity demand, tourism demand, the Australian government health budget and case volume at a US call centre.

2012 Greetings from IEEE WG on Energy Forecastin​g

posted Dec 21, 2012, 6:35 PM by Tao Hong   [ updated Jan 1, 2013, 2:18 PM ]

Dear colleagues,
How time flies! IEEE Working Group on Energy Forecasting has just gone through another productive year.
In 2012, we have completed the following activities:
- We organized two very well-attended panel sessions at PESGM2012. The list of 15 topics can be found HERE. All panel papers and/or presentations have been published at IEEE Xplore.
- We organized Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012), which attracted hunderds of participants from all over the world.
What to expect in 2013?
- We will organize two panel sessions at PESGM2013 with 18 state-of-the-art presentations.
- There will be a few post-GEFCom2012 activities, which can be found HERE.
- We will complete the review process for IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid Special Issue for Energy Forecasting with Applications to Smart Grid.
You are welcome to join the group on LinkedIn by clicking HERE.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all and your families!
Tao Hong, PhD

Post-GEFCom2012 Activities

posted Dec 9, 2012, 5:56 PM by Tao Hong

There are several activities following up GEFCom2012:
1. Nine finalists will present their work at IEEE PES General Meeting 2013. Four of them are from the hierarchical load forecasting track: Colin Singleton from CountingLab Ltd, James Robert Lloyd from University of Cambridge, Raphael Nédellec from EDF R&D, and Souhaib Ben Taieb from Université Libre de Bruxelles. Five of them are from the wind power forecasting track: Lucas Eustaquio from DTI Sistemas, Ekaterina Mangalova from Siberian State Aerospace University, Matt Wytock from Carnegie Mellon University, Gabor I. Nagy from Budapset University of Technology and Economics, and Duehee Lee from University of Texas at Austin.
2. International Journal of Forecasting (IJF) will publish a few short papers from GEFCom2012, including one introduction paper and several other papers describing the methodologies used by the top teams. The competition data including the results will be published with the introduction paper.
3. IEEE Transactions of Smart Grid will publish a few full papers from GEFCom2012 in the Special Issue on Analytics for Energy Forecasting with Applications to Smart Grid.

Congratulations, GEFCom2012 Contestants!

posted Oct 31, 2012, 8:15 PM by Tao Hong   [ updated Nov 1, 2012, 6:57 AM ]

Thank Kaggle's data scientists, the Advisory Committee and the officers of GEFCom2012, and of course hunderds of contestants who made this competition a fantastic and exciting event! While we are still accepting reports from the contestants for final evaluation, I can't wait to share some summary statistics with you all.
There are two tracks in GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting. During the planning stage, we have received over 100 sign-ups across more than 30 countries in total. As of today...
651 unique users have downloaded the data;
107 teams with 160 participants and 1010 entries;
27 teams have got better scores than Tao's Vanilla Benchmark.
583 unique users have downloaded the data;
134 teams with 198 participants and 1397 entries;
126 teams have got better scores than the benchmark based on the persistent forecast method.
In the next a few months, the Award Committee will evaluate the competition reports, validate the results, and make recommendations of the finalists to present their methodologies in IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting 2013 in Vancouver, Canada, where we will announce the final award winners of GEFCom2012. Meanwhile, a few selected entries will be invited to submit papers to two prestigious journals (IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid and International Journal of Forecasting).
Stay tuned...

More about GEFCom2012

posted Aug 28, 2012, 7:46 PM by Tao Hong   [ updated Aug 28, 2012, 7:47 PM ]

Up to date, 100+ people from the following 31 countries have filled in the Call For Participants survey:
Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK, US
While Kaggle is setting up the online competition environment for us, here are some more details about the competition:
1. GEFCom is not a paper contest. Instead, this is a competition that requires participants to develop models and submit forecasts based on a given data set. Accuracy of the forecasts will be one evaluation criteria.
2. In addition to accuracy, the participants are also required to submit a report describing the methodology, findings and models. Selected entries will be invited to IEEE PES General Meeting 2013 at Vancouver, Canada to present their methodologies and results. The final winners will be determined by the GEFCom Award Committee after the presentations based on forecasting accuracy, clarity of documentation, rigors of the approach, interpretability of the models and practicality to the industry.
3. A few entries will be invited to submit the report in scientific paper format to prestigious scholarly journals, such as International Journal of Forecasting and IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid.
4. The competition will be hosted at Kaggle.com. We do encourage you to register an account at Kaggle if you haven't done so and take a look at how other competitions were conducted in the past.
5. We plan to start the competition on 8/31/2012 and end it on 10/31/2012.
6. For both load forecasting and wind forecasting tracks, you will be doing forecasts for multiple series. You can join either track or both tracks. We expect one to spend 80+ hours to get some decent forecasts for each track.
7. You can collaborate with your co-works or friends to form teams to join the competition.
8. You can also join the competition on behave of your company.
(The information below is about the load forecasting track):
9. 20 load series at delivery point level and 11 temperature series for a US utility will be given at the load forecasting track.
10. In each load series, 8 nonconsecutive weeks were taken out from the history. For each of the 20 series, the participants are required to backcast the 8 weeks in the history and the one week immediately following the history period. In addition, the participants are required to backcast the 8 weeks in the history and forecast 1 week after the history period at the system level, which is the sum of the 20 series.
11. Temperature data is available throughout the history, but not available for the one week following the history period. The use of temperature data is optional. The participants can make their own decision.
12. Different weights will be given at different levels and weeks when evaluating accuracy: weight of the last week at system level > weight of a history week at system level > weight of the last week at delivery point level > weight of a history week at delivery point level.
13. In each hour, sum of delivery point level loads is required to be equal to the system level load. Submissions that violate this requirement will be disqualified.
14. Complete instructions will be provided through Kaggle and our competition webpage.
For more information, please contact Dr. Tao Hong (hongtao01@gmail.com) or visit www.gefcom.org.

IEEE PES Financially Sponsors GEFCom2012 with $18,000

posted Aug 12, 2012, 7:23 PM by Tao Hong   [ updated Aug 12, 2012, 7:30 PM ]

Due to large scale deployment of smart meters, increasing penetration of renewable energy resources and aging workforce, the utility industry is facing challenges in the field of energy forecasting. To help the industry improve forecasting practices, Power Systems Planning and Implementation Committee (PSPI) and Power and Energy Education Committee (PEEC) are co-sponsoring the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012 (GEFCom2012), which is being organized by IEEE Working Group on Energy Forecasting, a working group under PSPI Committee. The competition will bring together the state-of-the-art techniques for energy forecasting, serve as the bridge to connect academic research and industry practice, promote analytics in power engineering education, and prepare the industry to overcome forecasting challenges in the smart grid world.

The competition includes two tracks: load forecasting and wind forecasting. The winning entries will be determined by the award committee, which is formed by internationally recognized researchers and practitioners in the field, based on forecasting accuracy, clarity of documentation, rigors of the approach, interpretability of the models and practicality to the industry. IEEE Power & Energy Society has approved $18,000 to financially sponsor the event. The funding will be used to cover awards and operational expenses. The candidates will be required to attend PESGM2013 and present the proposed methodologies to be eligible to receive the awards.

Please fill in the Call For Participants to subscribe our email list if you are interested in joining GEFCom2012 (www.gefcom.org). 80+ people from 27 countries have already signed up. We will distribute the instructions through the email list as the launching date (8/31/2012) is approaching.

For more information, please contact Dr. Tao Hong (hongtao01@gmail.com) or visit www.gefcom.org.

What's New in Energy Forecasting - Jun 2012

posted Jun 17, 2012, 7:10 AM by Tao Hong   [ updated Jun 17, 2012, 7:57 AM ]

There are three exciting events going on in the energy forecasting community:
1. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012
Over 50 teams across 25 countries have signed up the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012. Please visit the competition webpage for more information, such as Call For Participants, Important Dates, etc.
2. Activities in IEEE PES General Meeting 2012, San Diego, CA:
IEEE Working Group on Energy Forecasting is hosting three sessions in PESGM2012:
Panel Session – “Load forecasting methodologies and applications in operations and planning”: Room Emma AB, Monday, July 23, 2012, 13:00 – 17:00;
Energy Forecasting Working Group Meeting: Room Windsor B, Tuesday, July 24, 2012, 14:00 – 16:00;
Panel Session – “Demand response: analytics, practice, and challenges in smart grid environment”, Room Emma A, Thursday, July 26, 2012, 13:00 – 17:00.
More information about the topics to be presented in the panel sessions can be found here.
3. Special Issue on Analytics for Energy Forecasting with Applications to Smart Grid
This special issue of IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid covers both challenges and opportunities for the energy forecasting communities, and will bring together the state-of-the-art analytics, technologies and best practices in the smart grid industry. The extended abstract is due on Sep 30th, 2012. For more information, please refer to the Call For Papers.

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