Q1: Regarding the in class exercise, should we include our findings in a report, memo, or email format?

A1: Prepare the report in MS Word, and send it through email. The details can be found in the project assignment under Phase 0.

 

Q2: When doing ex post forecast, can we use the dynamic regression models and assume we know the actual values of the lagged loads?

A2: You can use the dynamic regression models, but you cannot use the actual values of the lagged loads after the last hour of the history data. For instance, when forecasting 11/22/2007, you can use the actual loads up to the last hour of 11/20/2007. If you are deploying the dynamic regression models with last hour loads (Load_t-1), you have to predict the loads from 11/21/2007 to 11/22/2007, and plug in the predicted values to the model. If you are deploying the dynamic regression models with the loads of yesterday (Load_t-24), you have to forecast the loads of 11/21/2007 first, and then plug in the predicted values to forecast the loads of 11/22/2007.

 

Q3: How often does PJM update the Historical Metered Load Data?

A3: According to its Data Dictionary (http://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations/data-dictionary.aspx), Historical Metered Load Data (http://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations/ops-analysis/historical-load-data.aspx) is being updated monthly.

 

Q4: For our first submission on the morning of 9/26, which hours on which day(s) are we supposed to be forecasting?

A4: By 8am of 9/26/2011, you will provide the forecasted loads for the 1st to 24th hour of 9/27.