How Accurate is My Forecast? Duration: 1 hour Abstract This one-hour talk discusses the importance of error statistics in forecasting processes and how to use them to report, evaluate, compare and improve the forecasts. Presentation Outline Basic Concepts Ex ante forecast Ex post forecast Training, validation and test Error Statistics Goodness of fit Forecasting performance MAPE in load forecasting content Worst Practices Poor documentation Always looking "forward" Irrelevant comparison |