How Accurate is My Forecast?
Duration: 1 hour

This one-hour talk discusses the importance of error statistics in forecasting processes and how to use them to report, evaluate, compare and improve the forecasts.

Presentation Outline
Basic Concepts
    Ex ante forecast
    Ex post forecast
    Training, validation and test
Error Statistics
    Goodness of fit
    Forecasting performance
    MAPE in load forecasting content
Worst Practices
    Poor documentation
    Always looking "forward"
    Irrelevant comparison