All Publications
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Thesis, Dissertation and Book

  1. Tao Hong, "Short Term Electric Load Forecasting". PhD dissertation, North Carolina State University, Sep 10th, 2010 (download PDF from NCSU library)
  2. Tao Hong, "Long-Term Spatial Load Forecasting Using Human Machine Co-construct Intelligence Framework". Master thesis, North Carolina State University, Oct 28th, 2008

Working Papers

  1. Jingrui Xie and Tao Hong, "Load forecasting using 24 solar terms", submitted to Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy. 
  2. Jian Luo, Tao Hong and Meng Yue, "Real-time anomaly detection for very short-term load forecasting", submitted to Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy. 

Scholarly Journal Papers

  1. Jian Luo, Tao Hong and Shu-Cherng Fang, "Benchmarking robustness of load forecasting models under data integrity attacks", International Journal of Forecasting, accepted. (working paper)
  2. Jingrui Xie and Tao Hong, "Variable selection methods for probabilistic load forecasting: empirical evidence from seven states of the United States", IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, in press, available online. (IEEE Xplore)
  3. Jingrui Xie and Tao Hong, "Temperature scenario generation for probabilistic load forecasting", IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, in press, available online. (working paper; IEEE Xplore)
  4. Jingrui Xie, Ying Chen, Tao Hong and Thomas D. Laing, "Relative humidity for load forecasting models", IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, in press, available online. (working paper; IEEE Xplore).
  5. Jingrui Xie and Tao Hong, "Wind speed for load forecasting models", Sustainability, vol 9, no 5, pp 795, May, 2017 (open access).
  6. Jingrui Xie, Tao Hong, Thomas D. Laing and Chongqing Kang, "On normality assumption in residual simulation for probabilistic load forecasting"IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol.8, no.3, pp 1046-1053, May, 2017. (working paperIEEE Xplore)
  7. Bidong Liu, Jakub Nowotarski, Tao Hong and Rafal Weron, "Probabilistic load forecasting via quantile regression averaging on sister forecasts", IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol.8, no.2, pp 730-737, March, 2017. (working paperIEEE Xplore)
  8. Jingrui Xie and Tao Hong, "GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load forecasting: an integrated solution with forecast combination and residual simulation", International Journal of Forecastingvol.32, no.3, pp 1012-1016, July-September, 2016. (working paperScienceDirect)
  9. Tao Hong and Shu Fan, "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: a tutorial review", International Journal of Forecastingvol.32, no.3, pp 914-938, July-September, 2016. (working paperScienceDirectEssential Science Indicators Highly Cited Paper
  10. Tao Hong, Pierre Pinson, Shu Fan, Hamidreza Zareipour, Alberto Troccoli and Rob J. Hyndman, "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond", International Journal of Forecasting, vol.32, no.3, pp 896-913, July-September, 2016. (working paper; ScienceDirectcompetition dataEssential Science Indicators Highly Cited Paper
  11. Pu Wang, Bidong Liu and Tao Hong, "Electric load forecasting with recency effect: a big data approach", International Journal of Forecasting, vol.32, no.3, pp 585-597, July-September, 2016. (working paper; ScienceDirect) 
  12. Jakub Nowotarski, Bidong Liu, Rafal Weron and Tao Hong, "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts", Energy, vol.98, pp 40-49, March 1, 2016. (working paperScienceDirect)
  13. Jingrui Xie, Tao Hong and Joshua Stroud, "Long term retail energy forecasting with consideration of residential customer attrition", IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol.6, no.5, pp. 2245-2252, September, 2015. (working paper; IEEE Xplore)
  14. Tao Hong, Pu Wang and Laura White, "Weather station selection for electric load forecasting", International Journal of Forecasting, vol.31, no.2, pp 286-295, April-June, 2015. (working paper; ScienceDirect) 
  15. Tao Hong, Pierre Pinson and Shu Fan, "Global energy forecasting competition 2012", International Journal of Forecasting, vol.30, no.2, pp 357-363, April-June, 2014. (ScienceDirect; competition dataEssential Science Indicators Highly Cited Paper; Short-listed for IJF Best Paper Award 2017; Emerald Citations of Excellence for 2017
  16. Tao Hong and Pu Wang, "Fuzzy interaction regression for short term load forecasting", Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, vol.13, no.1, pp. 91-103, March, 2014. (Springer Link)
  17. Tao Hong, "Energy forecasting: past, present and future", Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, issue 32, pp. 43-48, Winter 2014. (IIFworking paper)
  18. Tao Hong, Jason Wilson and Jingrui Xie, "Long term probabilistic load forecasting and normalization with hourly information", IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol.5, no.1, pp.456-462, January, 2014. (IEEE Xplore) IEEE PES Technical Committee Prize Paper Award 2016 


  1. Tao Hong, Chen Chen, Jianwei Huang, Ning Lu, Le Xie and Hamidreza Zareipour, "Guest Editorial: big data analytics for grid modernization", IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol.7, no.5, pp 2395-2396, September, 2016. (IEEE Xplore)
  2. Tao Hong, Shu Fan, Wei-Jen Lee, Wenyuan Li, Anil Pahwa, Pierre Pinson, Jianhui Wang and Hamidreza Zareipour, "Guest editorial: special section on Analytics for energy forecasting with applications to smart grid", IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol.5, no.1, pp. 399-401, January, 2014. (IEEE Xplore)

Trade Journal and Magazine Papers

  1. Jingrui Xie and Tao Hong, "Improving gas load forecasts with big data", Natural Gas & Electricity, vol.32, no.10, pp 25-30, May, 2016. (author's copyWiley Online Library)
  2. Tao Hong, "Crystal ball lessons in predictive analytics", EnergyBiz, pp. 35-37, Spring, 2015 (web version - EnergyBiz; download print issue; web version - IntelligentUtility)
  3. Tao Hong, "Integrated energy forecasting: improving T&D planning and operations." Electricity Today, pp. 58-62, January/February, 2015 (web version)
  4. Tao Hong, "How to juggle the analytics of forecasting: 13 lucky tips", Intelligent Utility, pp. 11-13, July/August, 2014 (web versiondownload paperdownload print issue)
  5. Tao Hong and Alyssa Farrell, "Utilities dust off the forecasting playbook: smart grid data brings challenges and opportunities", Analytics Magazine, pp.50-57, July/August, 2013. (web version; download paper; digital version)

White Papers

  1. Tao Hong and Mohammad Shahidehpour, "Load forecasting case study", National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, pp.1-171, 2015. (open access; blog post)
  2. Sen-Hao Lai and Tao Hong, "When one size no longer fits all: electric load forecasting with a geographic hierarchy", SAS White Paper, pp.1-14, 2013. (open access)

Conference Proceedings

  1. Jingrui Xie and Tao Hong, "Comparing two model selection frameworks for probabilistic load forecasting", 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, Beijing, ChinaOctober 16-20, 2016
  2. Jingrui Xie; Tao Hong and Chongqing Kang, "From high-resolution data to high-resolution probabilistic load forecasts", 2016 IEEE PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition, Dallas, TX, May 2-5, 2016 (download working paper)
  3. Jingrui Xie, Bidong Liu, Xiaoqian Lyu, Tao Hong, and David Basterfield, "Combining load forecasts from independent experts: experience at NPower forecasting challenge 2015", the 47th North American Power Symposium (NAPS2015), October 4 - 6, 2015 (download from IEEE Xplore)
  4. Tao Hong, Tom Laing and Pu Wang, "Four best practices of load forecasting for electric cooperatives", 2014 IEEE Rural Electric Power Conference, Fort Worth, Texas, May 18 - 21, 2014 (download from IEEE Xplore; download working paper)
  5. Tao Hong and Pu Wang, "On the impact of demand response: load shedding, energy conservation, and further implications to load forecasting", 2012 IEEE PES General Meeting, San Diego, CA, July 19-22, 2012
  6. Tao Hong; Pu Wang, and H. Lee Willis, "A naive multiple linear regression benchmark for short term load forecasting," 2011 IEEE PES General Meeting, Detroit, MI, July 24-29, 2011 (Download presentation slides including panel session introduction)
  7. Tao Hong; Min Gui; Mesut E. Baran; H. Lee Willis , "Modeling and forecasting hourly electric load by multiple linear regression with interactions," Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 2010 IEEE , vol., no., pp.1-8, July 25-29, 2010
  8. Tao Hong; Pu Wang; Anil Pahwa; Min Gui; Simon M. Hsiang, "Cost of temperature history data uncertainties in short term electric load forecasting," Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on , vol., no., pp.212-217, June 14-17, 2010
  9. Tao Hong; James J Burke, "Calculating line losses in smart grid: A new rule of thumb," 2010 IEEE PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition, April 19-22, 2010
  10. Tao Hong; Hsiang, S.M.; Le Xu; , "Human-machine co-construct intelligence on horizon year load in long term spatial load forecasting," IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, July 26-30, 2009
  11. Tao Hong and Mo-Yuen Chow, "Resource allocation for a life science automation line: a Petri nets approach". Proceedings of CASE07, the 3rd Annual IEEE Conference on Automation Science and Engineering, pp 255-260, Scottsdale, AZ, USA, September 22-25, 2007
  12. Tao Hong, Mo-Yuen Chow, Perry Haaland, Dylan Wilson and Robert Walker "Scheduling a life science high-throughput platform under starvation constraints using timed transition Petri nets and heuristic search". Proceedings of ISIE07, 2007 IEEE International Symposium on Industrial Electronics, Vigo, Spain, June 4-7, 2007
  13. Tao Hong and Mo-Yuen Chow, "Timed Petri nets modelling of high-throughput screening process for fault study", Proceedings of IECON06, The 32nd Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, pp 4425-4430, Paris, France, November 7-10, 2006
  14. Yunfei Wang, Geng Yang and Tao Hong, "Analysis and implementation of AC motor braking method without energy returning or braking unit", The 8th International Conference on Electrical Machines and Systems (ICEMS 2005), Volume II, pp 1447-1451, Nanjing, China, September 27-29, 2005.